The transformation of UK demographics and the provision of local services
From Future of Local Services to the Public
Contents |
Summary
Population change is widely discussed. The Cipfa report on The Future of Services to the Public predicts that by 2025 the retirement age will have risen from 65 to 79, and that the average number of children per woman is decreasing. More recently, the Audit Commission published a report on the need for councils to act now and plan ahead in anticipation of the growing proportion of older members in society (Don’t stop me now – preparing for an ageing population).
The ONS has published predictions of population change over a number of time periods. The most reliable predictions are those published up to 2031, further predictions are also available, but as the time period becomes greater the data becomes less reliable. At the moment the predicted data estimates that there are currently 51,488,000 people living in England and that this is likely to rise to 60,432,000 by 2031.
Figures from the Audit Commission show that the trend of England’s ageing population is accelerating: in 2009 around 17.7 million will be aged 50 or over, by 2029 this figure will have increased to 22.9 million. As a proportion of the population, the increase rises from 34% in 2009 to 39% in 2029. Although the extent demographic change will differ between councils, the Report suggests that only a third of councils are well prepared for the change. (1)
Impacts
A reduction in the resources from central government will either lead to an increase in the revenue generated by tax (income and council) or an increase in the services paid for at the point of use. The Cipfa report suggests that the outcome to this will be dependent in which of the four contextual scenarios it takes place: World Markets, Global Sustainability, Local Stewardship, or National Enterprise.
In regards to the ageing population
- ‘Age-proofing’ mainstream services: this includes involving older population in identifying priorities and delivery design; and making sure that they are able to access mainstream services
- Target Spending: including support of independent living
- Identifying issues of dependency and social isolation
Relevance
- Implications for the proportion of GDP required for social care provision, which will have an impact upon the resources available for local government from central government and when deciding on which services for which there should be a charge.
- Most relevant for those working in Housing, Social Services, Education and on community cohesion.
References
<a href="http://www.cipfa.org.uk/download/FSP_Vol1.pdf">http://www.cipfa.org.uk/download/FSP_Vol1.pdf</a>
<a href="Www.gad.gov.uk/Demography Data/Population/2006/england/weng065y.xls">www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/england/weng065y.xls</a>
Audit Commission, Don’t Stop Me Know: preparing for the ageing population <a href="http://www.audit-commission.gov.uk/reports/NATIONAL-REPORT.asp?CategoryID=&ProdID=D1391254-78F6-42b8-92A1-53004A972E34">http://www.audit-commission.gov.uk/reports/NATIONAL-REPORT.asp?CategoryID=&ProdID=D1391254-78F6-42b8-92A1-53004A972E34</a>
