Future UK economy and labour market

From Future of Local Services to the Public

From Clayton, S. and Schultz, W. (April 2008) 'Local Government Horizon Scan 2015-30'

Summary

Clayton and Schultz argue that, 'despite continuing uncertainties in the world economy and growing competitive pressures, the UK economy remains sound': They argue that:

• Real GDP is expected to increase around a third between 2007 and 2020 (around 2.5% p.a.)
• Average incomes will rise, resulting in increased expenditure on leisure, health, environment, education, culture and sport.
• UK labour force is expected to continue growing until 2020: the number of economically active people is expected to reach 32.1m in 2020, the equivalent to an increase of 6.7% on 2005.
• High participation rates amongst older people who combine part-time incomes with early retirement pensions.
• Employment continues to rise 2004-2014 resulting in over 1.3m additional jobs.
• The majority of additional jobs will be taken by women, although men will take up an increasing share of employment in many parts of the economy previously dominated by female employment.
• Levels of claimant unemployment will remain stable, rising slightly and then falling back.