Intensification of Global Migration

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From Clayton, S. and Schultz, W. (April 2008) 'Local Government Horizon Scan 2015-30'

Summary

  • Over 140 million people now live outside their countries of birth and migrants comprise more than 15 percent of the population in 50+ countries. These numbers will grow as demographic ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors intensify (as a result of economic inequality, demography, conflict and human rights abuse, environmental change, regionalisation, globalised education institutions).
  • Over the next 25 years, between 3m and 4m more migrants are expected to join the 400,000+ legal immigrants from central Europe now living and working in Western Europe. Broad movements into Europe are projected from North Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and post-communist states in Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
  • An estimated 150 million climate change ‘environmental refugees’ will be seeking new homes by 2050 (due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption).
  • Competition between countries, regions and cities to attract and retain skilled labour will increase.
  • Net migration into UK is increasing each year, though at a decreasing rates: from 240k in 2007/8 slowing to 190k in 2015/16.
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