The transformation of energy production
From Future of Local Services to the Public
From Clayton, S. and Schultz, W. (April 2008) 'Local Government Horizon Scan 2015-30'
Summary
Clayton and Schultz note that:
- Global demand for energy is projected to be 53% higher in 2030 than in 2004 (based on current energy policies), driven by rapid economic and population growth in developing countries. For example, world oil consumption is expected to rise from 83m barrels a day in 2004 to 118m barrels in 2030 while OPEC officials claim that its eleven member countries can provide for the world’s energy needs for roughly the next 80 years.
- In Britain, as indigenous energy resources decline, dependence on imported fuels will rise to meet energy demand; by 2020 around 80% of energy likely to come from overseas.
- Increased demand for energy (and other resources) will drive technological development leading to accelerated development of alternative energy innovations, for example by 2020 wind may meet 12% of global electricity demand and solar panels may meet 26% of global electricity demand by 2040.
- Distributed energy production increasingly the norm as more customers sell energy back to the grid from privately owned fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind farms, etc leading to increased decentralization and greening of energy production.
- By 2020 community initiatives offering homes with integrated solar collector and photovoltaic grids will become common. The solar power capabilities of each house in the community will be interconnected, creating more efficient solar energy production and use across the community.
- Organic solar cells will be designed that are cheap to produce (using printing technology), highly flexible and suitable for powering small devices like cell phones and mp3 players that are linked with sensors and circuits to create a self-sufficient, powered microsystem on a small plastic strip.
- Companies will work to create photovoltaic fibres that can be woven into clothing so that consumers can wear, carry or integrate photovoltaics into most of their environment.
